Competing with Space X's Starlink plan, my country's third 10,000 satellite plan

SpaceX's Starlink has shown the world the flames of global competition for space resources, and with the successive release of our country's constellation plans, a battle centered on low Earth orbit satellites has already begun.

01

The "Honghu-3" plan, which aims to launch ten thousand satellites

Chinese commercial aerospace enterprises, which started later than SpaceX, are accelerating their pace to catch up under the surge of the "new infrastructure" wave.

Recently, according to a report by the American Space News Network (SpaceNews), Shanghai Blue Arrow Hongqing Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hongqing Technology") submitted a pre-notification information (API) to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). The document outlines a plan for a constellation named Honghu-3, which will launch a total of 10,000 satellites in 160 orbital planes. Reporters found on the official website of the International Telecommunication Union that the document is publicly accessible.

The API document is to notify the International Telecommunication Union and its member states of their intention to launch a satellite network or system, and others can review the proposed satellite network to assess any potential interference with their existing or planned satellite systems.

If the plan is approved and implemented, it will be comparable to SpaceX's Starlink plan. Public information shows that there are currently 6,507 Starlink satellites in orbit.

The Hongyan constellation is divided into two phases of construction. The first phase is expected to invest 20 billion yuan and build a communication network composed of 60 satellites by 2022; the second phase is expected to be completed by 2025, constructing a "sea, land, air, and space" integrated satellite mobile communication and space internet access system through hundreds of satellites.Hongqing Technology has gained recognition for its development of Hall thruster technology, and it is currently developing its own constellation networking Hall electric propulsion system, being one of the few companies both domestically and internationally that have mastered the technology of permanent magnet excitation Hall thrusters.

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On December 21, 2023, the "Golden Crow-200" (JW-200) xenon propellant Hall electric propulsion independently developed by Hongqing Technology successfully ignited and operated stably on the Honghu satellite, marking the first time in China that a permanent magnet excitation Hall thruster has been ignited and operated in orbit, and also the first time that a krypton propellant Hall electric propulsion has been ignited and operated in orbit.

Sun Dezhi, the person in charge of electric propulsion storage and supply research and development at Hongqing Technology, previously stated that Hall electric propulsion has the characteristics of high specific impulse and long life, especially for low Earth orbit satellites, the use of a low-power Hall electric propulsion system at the kilowatt level has the best comprehensive advantages. The company has established factories and manufacturing bases in Shanghai and Jiaxing, preparing for the mass production of the Hall electric propulsion system.

02

The "Commercial Space" plan behind Honghu

"Commercial Space" was written into this year's government work report for the first time, highlighting its importance as a new engine for China's economic development.

Since 2015, the Chinese government has issued a series of policy documents to encourage and support the development of commercial space. For example, the "National Civil Space Infrastructure Long-term Development Plan (2015-2025)" clarified the important position of private enterprises in the field of commercial space and proposed specific development goals and measures. In addition, local governments have also actively participated, establishing multiple industry funds, such as the 5 billion yuan commercial space industry fund set up by Daxing District in Beijing, specifically for promoting the implementation of commercial space industry base projects.

Driven by policies, China's commercial space industry has maintained a rapid growth trend. It is expected that by 2025, the market size will reach 2.8 trillion yuan, showing tremendous development potential and attracting a large number of private enterprises to join.In 2023, the number of new enterprises in China's commercial space industry reached 113,000, a year-on-year increase of 29%. Among them, 43% are rocket manufacturing companies, and 35% are satellite manufacturing companies. To date, a number of private rocket companies with rocket launch capabilities have emerged in the market, such as i-Space, Galaxy Energy, and CAS Space, among others. These private enterprises have also made significant progress in technological innovation.

For instance, in April 2023, Tianbing Technology's Tianlong-2 became the first private liquid oxygen kerosene orbital rocket in China. Additionally, the Zhuque-2 liquid oxygen methane rocket developed by Blue Arrow Aerospace was successfully launched and entered orbit. These technological breakthroughs not only demonstrate the innovative capabilities of private enterprises but also narrow the gap with international giants like SpaceX.

Although Chinese private enterprises have made significant progress in the commercial space sector, compared to the United States, which has a space industry dominated by private enterprises, China's scale effect has not yet fully formed, and the contribution of private enterprises to space launch activities still needs to be enhanced.

The United States is one of the first countries in the world to engage in commercial space activities and is also one of the most successful. SpaceX, as one of the most famous commercial space companies in the United States, is expected to have a rocket launch market worth $31.7 billion between 2018 and 2027. Commercial rocket companies in the United States that have successfully sent payloads into orbit include Rocket Lab, Virgin Orbit, Firefly Aerospace, and others.

In terms of policy, the United States has encouraged the development of commercial space by private companies through pioneering public-private partnership policies. This policy has been a guiding light for the development of its commercial space industry since the Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984, and NASA has played a very active role in promoting the development of private rocket enterprises.

NASA ensures the success rate of technology research and development by transferring core technology to private companies and dispatching technical experts to these companies. For example, SpaceX has received multiple commercial contracts awarded by NASA, with a total value of over $4.6 billion. NASA's support for the growth of private commercial space enterprises has formed a systematic support mechanism, giving the United States a leading advantage in the global private space sector. NASA hopes to leverage the power of private commercial space to participate in more revolutionary exploration missions. For instance, SpaceX's "Falcon" rocket successfully carried out NASA's NG-20 mission, placing Northrop Grumman's Cygnus satellite into orbit.

Overall, both China and the United States have their own strengths and challenges in the development of commercial rockets. China is rapidly catching up and is expected to achieve rapid development in the coming years, while the United States continues to maintain its leading position in this field.Low Earth Orbit Satellites Drive the Race for Space Resources

In recent years, with the development of the "Starlink" program, the potential military applications of low Earth orbit constellations have also attracted external attention. Although the "Starlink" program is positioned as a commercial satellite internet, it can also provide remote sensing and enhanced navigation services when carrying other payloads.

In the future, this global space-based internet network could support real-time control of remote missiles, and its orbital propulsion system could achieve kinetic attacks on other space targets. In summary, once the "swarm" warfare is launched, it will be difficult for other satellites to compete with it.

The development of the global low Earth orbit satellite internet is not only a commercial competition but also involves competition at the national defense strategy level. Due to the scarcity and intense competition for low orbit resources, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has adopted the principle of "first come, first served." Major economies such as China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia are actively applying for and deploying low Earth orbit satellites.

In addition to China and the United States, the UK's OneWeb company is also actively promoting a low Earth orbit satellite internet project, aiming to provide internet services globally. South Korea's Samsung company has also invested and laid out in the field of low Earth orbit satellite internet, demonstrating its ambitions in this area. With the start of a new round of the "space race," according to incomplete statistics, there are nearly 100,000 satellites "eyeing" the near-Earth orbit, and the huge launch plan forces satellite manufacturing to enter the "industrialization" stage. In this race, China also needs to run faster.

04

China's Third Satellite Constellation Plan with Over 10,000 Satellites

Honghu-3 is China's third giant constellation plan with over 10,000 satellites, following the StarNet GW plan and the G60 constellation. Compared with the former two, the Honghu-3 plan has innovations and breakthroughs in scale and technology.

The previously released StarNet GW plan plans to launch 12,992 satellites, divided into two sub-constellations: the GW-A59 sub-constellation deploys 6,080 satellites in the very low orbit below 500km, and the GW-2 sub-constellation deploys 6,912 satellites in the near-Earth orbit at 1,145km. It is led by a powerful national enterprise, involving strong technical and resource integration capabilities. Its orbital inclination is distributed between 30°-85°, showing its complex orbital layout design.The G60 Constellation project plans to launch approximately 12,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites to ultimately cover the global demand for broadband network services. The G60 Satellite Company is the leader of this initiative, relying on the industrial manufacturing capabilities of the Yangtze River Delta G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor, with the goal of establishing a globally competitive satellite industry chain by 2027.

In comparison to the StarNet GW and G60 Constellation projects, the Honghu-3 Constellation project is seen as China's version of "Starlink," explicitly stating that it is primarily used in the field of satellite internet. These three programs each have their own characteristics, ranging from national-level enterprises to local government support, and then to startup companies leading the way, showcasing China's satellite internet development strategies across different fields and levels.

Overall, China's version of the "Starlink" plan also aims to build a global satellite internet system by deploying a large number of satellites (such as 26,000), which will further promote communication demands around the world. The construction of these satellite constellations will not only meet the needs of the civilian market but may also have a significant impact on military and other high-end applications.