The domestic "Starlink" will be launched in 4 days! What is the origin of Qianfa

The inaugural satellite launch ceremony for the "Thousand Sails Constellation" is set to take place on August 5th in Taiyuan, with the first batch of satellites to be launched into orbit in a "one rocket with 18 satellites" configuration!

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Imminent Launch of the First Batch of Satellites for the "Thousand Sails Constellation"

Recently, the commercial aerospace sector has been abuzz with exciting news—the launch ceremony for the first batch of satellites for the "Thousand Sails Constellation" is scheduled for August 5th in Taiyuan. The constellation is planned to consist of over 14,000 low Earth orbit (LEO) broadband multimedia satellites, with at least 108 satellites expected to be launched this year. By the end of 2025, 648 satellites are projected to provide regional network coverage, and by 2027, these 648 satellites will offer global network coverage.

The "Thousand Sails Constellation" (also known as: G60 Starlink Project) commenced construction in 2023 and includes three generations of satellite systems. It employs a full-frequency, multi-layer, and multi-orbit constellation design. At least 108 satellites are expected to be launched this year, with the first phase completing the launch of 1,296 satellites. The future aim is to build a network of over 14,000 LEO broadband multimedia satellites. This will significantly enhance China's competitiveness in the global satellite communication field and provide domestic users with broader and higher-quality communication services.

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The first phase of the "Thousand Sails Constellation" aims to achieve regional network coverage with 648 satellites by the end of 2025. The second phase, by 2027, will see these 648 satellites providing global network coverage. The third phase, by the end of 2030, will realize mobile direct connection and multi-service integration services with 15,000 satellites.

The G60 Starlink is another significant satellite internet launch plan in China, apart from the GW constellation by China Star Network Company. In July 2023, the Secretary of the Songjiang District Committee of Shanghai announced at a press conference that Songjiang is developing the LEO broadband global multimedia satellite "G60 Starlink." The experimental satellite has been launched and successfully networked, with the first phase implementing 1,296 satellites, and the future goal is to achieve a network of over 12,000 satellites.Currently, the number of satellites that China has most recently declared to the ITU has reached 51,300, and the number of satellite launches is expected to see a significant increase in the next decade. China Star Network has applied for an additional 5,656 satellites on top of the original 12,992, and Shanghai Yuanxin has applied for an additional 27,808 satellites on top of the original 1,296. The newly declared satellite constellations do not represent the final approval situation and still require a lengthy approval and coordination process by the ITU. However, the near-Earth orbit capacity is approximately 100,000 satellites, on a first-come, first-served basis.

Behind the "first-come, first-served" principle lies nothing more than a global competition for low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.

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Cost-effective LEO Satellites

Space Resource Competition

Since SpaceX launched the Starlink project, more and more people have realized the importance of the competition for LEO satellite resources.

LEO satellites refer to satellites operating in orbits about 160 to 2,000 kilometers above the Earth's surface. These satellites, due to their lower orbital altitudes, have characteristics such as low transmission latency and low link losses, making them highly suitable for the development of satellite internet services.

LEO satellite internet has features such as a wide service range, the ability to serve many users simultaneously, and low latency for long-distance communication. The coverage of satellite constellations is extensive; in geostationary orbit, only three satellites are needed to cover the entire globe; for medium Earth orbit, 6-7 satellites are required; and for LEO satellite constellations, a minimum of just a few hundred satellites are needed. The system capacity of LEO satellite constellations is large. According to Space & Network, Starlink plans to achieve a per-satellite user-side link rate of 17-23 Gbps. For the first phase with 1,584 satellites in orbit, the average network capacity can reach 2.17 Tbps, equivalent to 2,170 terrestrial 5G base stations.

Due to fewer routing transfers and a shorter total length of space-based links, satellite communication has lower latency in transoceanic long-distance communication than undersea cables. According to the Wen Wei Po, taking Shanghai to New York as an example, the distance is about 150,000 kilometers, with satellite communication latency of about 50 milliseconds, and fiber optic network communication is approximately 1.67 times slower than interstellar propagation speed.Simultaneously, low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellations will also be an essential component of the integrated space-terrestrial network for 6G Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN). According to the "6G Overall Vision and Potential Key Technology White Paper" by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), achieving integrated terrestrial-satellite networking is a key technology in the 6G era, where terrestrial networks are combined with satellite networks. This approach leverages terrestrial networks for routine coverage in urban hotspots and utilizes space-based and aerial networks for on-demand coverage in remote areas, at sea, and in the air, ultimately achieving a deep integration of aerial, space-based, and terrestrial networks.

In addition to the technical necessities, LEO satellites also offer extremely high cost-effectiveness from an economic perspective.

Traditional terrestrial mobile communication services cover less than 6% of the Earth's surface area. Due to inherent limitations, the density requirements for 5G/6G base stations are much higher than those for traditional 3G/4G networks. The comprehensive deployment cost is prohibitively high, and in the short term, it can only ensure coverage in urban areas. In contrast, LEO satellite constellations can achieve global coverage with a minimum of just a few hundred satellites, providing network supplementation for remote and maritime regions.

According to data from Bicron Microelectronics, to achieve the same coverage goals, at least 10 million 5G macro base stations would need to be constructed. The cost for operators to purchase and deploy a single 5G macro base station is approximately 160,000 yuan, corresponding to an investment of over 1.6 trillion yuan. Additionally, 10 million 5G macro base stations consume 150 billion yuan in electricity annually. In contrast, the operational and maintenance costs of satellite constellations are relatively low. After the system is built, the main operational costs include depreciation, unless satellites need to be replaced. Taking the second-generation Iridium constellation as an example, it cost 3 billion USD with a design life of 10-15 years, resulting in an annual depreciation of about 300 million USD.

The strategic value, coupled with economic benefits, is sufficient to make LEO satellites a focal point in the aerospace strategic layout of countries worldwide. Especially according to the "Radio Regulations" established by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), satellite orbits and spectrum resources are exclusive and time-bound, giving satellite constellations a clear "first-mover advantage."

There is only one Geostationary Earth Orbit (GEO), which requires fair negotiation and allocation among countries. Other orbits (LEO and Medium Earth Orbit, MEO) need to be coordinated and allocated according to the "first-come, first-served" principle. According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), the number of satellites that can be accommodated in low Earth orbit is 60,000. Considering only the Starlink LEO constellation launched by SpaceX in the United States, it has planned three phases of launches, with a scale of 42,000 satellites. As of January 15, 2024, SpaceX has launched a total of 5,739 Starlink satellites. Meanwhile, Amazon's Kuiper and the UK's OneWeb have also planned launches on a scale of thousands of satellites.

It is projected that by 2029, approximately 57,000 satellites will be deployed in low Earth orbit, making orbital space very scarce. The Ku and Ka frequency bands primarily used by LEO satellites will also become very congested.

According to ITU regulations, satellite operators must launch 10% of their satellites within 2 years after the first satellite is put into use, 50% within 5 years, and complete the full deployment within 7 years. Failure to meet these requirements on time will result in the forfeiture of the corresponding resource ownership.From a global perspective, the United States has been leading in the number of orbital launches and payloads placed into orbit from 2016 to 2023, with China closely following behind.

Apart from China and the United States, countries around the world are actively participating in the construction of satellite constellations, vying for a first-mover advantage in the satellite internet industry. British telecommunications company OneWeb, Amazon's Kuiper, Canada's Telesat, Russia's Sphere, Germany's Rivada, and South Korea's Samsung have all planned ambitious satellite launch programs.

According to data from UCS, the global number of satellite launches has shown a significant upward trend since 2017. In 2022, 2,119 satellites were launched worldwide, a year-on-year increase of 32.4%, with a 5-year CAGR of 55.9%. As of 2022, the total number of operational satellites in orbit worldwide reached 6,718, with the top three countries being the United States with 4,529 satellites (67.4%), China with 596 satellites (8.9%), and the United Kingdom with 565 satellites (8.4%). The United States is comprehensively leading in constellation construction, which is pushing China's satellite industry to accelerate its upgrade.

Looking at the annual increase in satellites, since 2015, the United States has seen an expanding share of the lead, with the number of new satellites launched by the United States accounting for 86% of the global total in 2022. This reflects the leading position of commercial space companies like Starlink and SpaceX in terms of reusable rocket launch costs and satellite manufacturing and delivery capabilities.

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State-owned and private enterprises join forces to lay out

China's three major "10,000-star constellation" plansCurrently, China has planned three "thousand-star constellations," in addition to the "Qianfan Constellation" (G60 Starchain Plan), there are: China Star Network's GW Constellation, which includes the GW-A59 and GW-22 class sub-constellations, with an expected launch of 6,080 satellites for GW-A59 and 6,912 satellites for GW-2, totaling 12,992; Hongqin Technology, under Blue Arrow Aerospace, has submitted preliminary information for the Honghu-3 constellation plan to the ITU, planning to launch a total of 10,000 satellites across 160 orbital planes.

In 2024, China's space launch attempts are expected to reach a new high, with the main increase coming from low Earth orbit (LEO) communication satellites.

At present, China's satellite manufacturing mainly relies on state-owned enterprises, with a long overall research and development cycle and still in the early stages of the industry, resulting in high production costs. In 2024, "commercial aerospace" was written into the government work report for the first time. Referring to SpaceX as a private aerospace company, it has significantly reduced the cost of space activities through reusable technology, and in the long term, when moving towards economies of scale, private enterprises will become important participants.

China has been actively implementing low Earth orbit satellite internet constellation plans for many years. State-owned enterprises plan to launch GW, "Hongyan" constellation, "Hongyun," and "Xingyun" projects; private commercial aerospace companies have launched Galaxy constellation, remote sensing satellite constellation Lingque, and "Star Era" AI constellation plans.

According to data from the "China Aerospace Science and Technology Activities Blue Book (2023)," in 2023, China carried out a total of 67 space launch missions, ranking second in the world, and developed and launched 221 spacecraft, with the number of launch attempts and spacecraft setting a new record for China. It is expected that around 100 launch missions will be implemented in 2024, potentially setting a new record; China's first commercial space launch site will welcome its first launch mission, and multiple satellite constellations will accelerate the construction of their networks.

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Tiantong mobile phones directly connect to satellites

The most direct public perception of low Earth orbit satellitesFor the general public, the most direct application experience of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites is obviously in communication. LEO satellites play a significant role in direct mobile communication. Due to their lower orbit altitude, they have short transmission delays and minimal path losses, enabling LEO satellites to provide high-quality real-time communication services that meet the public's demands for applications with high latency and bandwidth requirements. Additionally, LEO satellites can be integrated with everyday devices such as mobile phones, walkie-talkies, and smartwatches, offering users convenient communication services.

This implies that in the future, the NTN (Non-Terrestrial Network) standardized access method is expected to become mainstream. 5G NTN achieves the concept of "moving the base station to the sky" by performing demodulation/decoding, encoding/modulation, and other functions on satellites, either entirely or partially, before connecting to the 5G core network through an NTN gateway. This allows 5G to transition from terrestrial to space-based, and ensures compatibility between satellite and terrestrial communication systems.

5G NTN mainly includes two technological paths: IOTNTN and NRNTN. IOTNTN is based on the evolution of NB-IoT technology, focusing on supporting Internet of Things (IoT) services, providing low-speed data transmission and short message functions; NRNTN is derived from 5G NR technology, focusing on supporting broadband data, voice, and fixed wireless access functions.

The goal of 5G NTN is to achieve a unified network for 6G, realizing unified air interface transmission, unified access control, unified authentication, and a unified network architecture. This aims to enable seamless switching between satellite and terrestrial networks, thereby bringing about comprehensive changes to people's lives.